Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the political, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in universities but very few politicians or advocates are willing to participate even with the basics. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two pieces that aim for impartiality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they favour unification but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government should work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has has important lessons to learn from the other's arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must join the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
