Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are waged: hopeful statements are delivered from different nations. Immense energy is allocated on containing specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from across the border, a ability enabled by timely intelligence. From observation points, defense planes that had been scrambled to engage hostile guided weapons roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: defensive missiles targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely delivered by partner states. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly becomes sober acceptance: perhaps the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a automatic firearm fired at a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – probably imported technology. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: multiple fatalities, devastation and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a dependence that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to replace in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from Washington sparked intense emotion, discussion and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from Washington unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, undoubtedly, persist.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington works based on a principle familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House believes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to surrender the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does minimal to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from believing that the current condition will not change more in its advantage in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing lives and land but avoiding a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its favour.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their task will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to eliminate the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new proposals based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, mainly require sustained allied backing.
